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There have been many articles published in recent months, and indeed over the last

several years, about slot hold, with 2️⃣ many at least partially attributing the industry’s

woes to rising hold.

“Hold” is the expected amount of each wager that the 2️⃣ slot machine

“holds” over time. A slot machine with 5 percent hold is expected to produceR$5 revenue

for the casino 2️⃣ for everyR$100 in wagers. The same machine may be described as having 95

percent “RTP” or return-to-player.

Over the past two 2️⃣ decades, we’ve seen average slot

holds rise considerably, largely due to the proliferation of higher-hold penny video

slots. See Nevada’s 2️⃣ hold, for example, in the figure below.

To contextualize this

increase, bettingR$1 per spin at eight spins per minute, aR$100 budget 2️⃣ would last on

average 249 minutes at the 5.02 percent hold we saw in 1993, but only 187 minutes at

2️⃣ the 6.7 percent hold we saw in 2024. If we were instead to look at the effect of moving

from 2️⃣ 9 percent hold to 10.68 percent hold (the same 1.68-point increase, more

indicative of penny slot hold), time on device 2️⃣ for thatR$100 budget would decrease on

average from 138.9 minutes to 117 minutes, a decline of more than 15 percent 2️⃣ or nearly

22 minutes of play.

Increased hold is decreasing the average time of slot sessions.

This isn’t a controversial viewpoint; 2️⃣ it’s just math—if the machine holds more per

spin, players with a fixed budget necessarily spend less time on machines.

The

2️⃣ question, “Can players ‘feel’ the effect of hold changes?” has been studied by

academics, and they’ve concluded that players cannot. 2️⃣ Industry experts have countered

this research by arguing that increased hold is nonetheless degrading the experience of

the slot player, 2️⃣ for example by decreasing time on device. These critics argue that a

player-centric rather than a machine-centric review is necessary.

These 2️⃣ views may seem

irreconcilable, and intuitively, how could players not feel a decrease of 20 minutes on

device? This article 2️⃣ is intended to bring together these views. I’ve spent a lot of

time studying these questions with slot operators, finance 2️⃣ teams, economists, and data

scientists, and as such, have a unique perspective on the problem.

Players Can’t Feel

Hold Changes

Anthony Lucas, 2️⃣ a professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, has

published several articles with various co-authors on how players can’t 2️⃣ “feel” the

effects of a hold change. The evidence has been several-fold, with the most compelling

arguments being that:

A computer 2️⃣ (let alone a human) can’t accurately distinguish

between two different return-to-player (RTP) settings in a number of observations that

mimic 2️⃣ a human slot session on a reel machine; and,

Lucas and his co-authors have run a

number of live experiments in 2️⃣ casinos with side-by-side machines of the same theme, one

with low hold and one with high hold, and observed empirically 2️⃣ that the high-hold

machines perform better financially.

Both of these findings are sound. That is, in

nearly all cases, a player 2️⃣ cannot accurately tell the difference if a machine’s hold is

changed, sometimes even dramatically. Though, I should note there are 2️⃣ several ways of

going from hold A to hold B, and some of these may be easier for players to 2️⃣ “feel” than

others. We’ll discuss why hold changes are not all created equal later on.

In the cases

studied, using variants 2️⃣ of actual paytables from reel slot machines, Lucas and

co-author A.K. Singh argue (correctly) that players can’t possibly tell the 2️⃣ difference

between hold settings, because even computers cannot tell the difference with any

degree of certainty across 500 spins (representing 2️⃣ approximately an hour of continuous

slot play) or even across longer sessions. Certainly, players may guess, as can

computers, but 2️⃣ they are wrong nearly as often as they are right.

Players can’t “feel”

the time decrease because slot machine outcomes are 2️⃣ volatile. As a wise man once said,

“you never know what you’re gonna get.”

This effect is born out on slot 2️⃣ floors, as

described in Lucas’ recent work with Kate Spilde, where they measure the performance of

high-hold and low-hold versions 2️⃣ of the same slot machines placed next to each other on

the floor, finding that the high-hold machines outperform the 2️⃣ low-hold machines

empirically.

My own experiences echo these results. In nearly every example I’ve ever

seen—including the dozens of tests I’ve 2️⃣ run with slot teams on real, live casino

floors—the higher-hold machine of a pair of like machines generates higher win 2️⃣ than the

lower-hold machine. That is, slot patrons don’t shift their play to the lower-hold

device. Players truly can’t feel 2️⃣ hold changes.

How Can Player Behavior Be Impacted If a

Player Can’t Feel Hold Changes?

It would be easy to conclude, as 2️⃣ Lucas does in several

of his articles, that casinos can perhaps increase their revenues by increasing slot

hold. But upon 2️⃣ reflection this is far from clear.

First, the side-by-side machine

comparison fails to ask about the rest of the slot floor, 2️⃣ about the rest of the

player’s wallet. Is the increased financial performance of the high-hold machine simply

displaced win from 2️⃣ the rest of the floor? Or, asked differently, do the players that

lose less on the lower-hold machine exhibit increased 2️⃣ play elsewhere on the floor? In

other words, do players generally lose the same amount on the visit, but those

2️⃣ experiencing lower hold just lose slower and on more machines, getting more time in the

casino?

Second, even if we were 2️⃣ able to measure the overall wallet impact of

experiencing lower or higher hold on a single visit, how does this 2️⃣ experience impact

likelihood to return, or frequency of visitation? Is it possible that a lower-hold

experience today means that a 2️⃣ player will return to the casino sooner, producing the

same amount of revenue or more over more visits?

As an extreme 2️⃣ thought experiment,

consider that a machine that holds 100 percent—never returning a dime to a player—will

perform financially better in 2️⃣ the short term, for some definition of “short term.” But

as a player, if you walked into a casino withR$100 2️⃣ and lost on every spin of your

machine, would you consider yourself unlucky on that trip? Would you hesitate before

2️⃣ returning? How would you feel if it happened again on your next trip?

This thought

experiment—even if 100 percent hold is 2️⃣ extreme—provides a useful way of thinking about

how players can be impacted by hold changes even if they don’t know 2️⃣ that the hold is

higher. Players don’t experience theoretical hold. Players experience the random

sequence of outcomes that the machine 2️⃣ produces in the short amount of time that they

play on the machine. They experience “Did I have a good 2️⃣ time while I was at the

casino?”

This question will have different criteria for different players: How long did

my budget 2️⃣ last me? Did I get to experience fun bonus games on the machine? Did I have

positive staff interactions? Was 2️⃣ my restaurant or valet experience good? And the answer

to “Did I have a good time while I was at 2️⃣ the casino?” influences player behavior

related to return trips: Will the player return, and how soon?

A player who has a 2️⃣ bad

session at low theoretical hold has the same negative experience as a player who has a

bad session at 2️⃣ high theoretical hold. Tying this all together, increased hold leads to

a higher proportion of players experiencing losing sessions, short 2️⃣ sessions, and

therefore, overall negative experiences.

We know that actual loss correlates to overall

experience, and you can validate this with 2️⃣ your own guest survey results. Players who

have “winning experiences” as measured by the duration of play that their budget 2️⃣ allows

or as measured by the experience of low actual hold (including those who win on the

trip) tend to 2️⃣ report better satisfaction with staff interactions, beverage service, and

several other areas of guest experience. And we all believe that 2️⃣ experience matters in

choosing whether entertainment budget should be spent at a casino, and furthermore when

choosing which casino to 2️⃣ visit.

By increasing theoretical hold, even if any individual

player can’t tell that we’ve done so, we increase the number of 2️⃣ players whose random

sequence of slot outcomes leads them to have poor overall experiences at the casino,

and this can 2️⃣ have downstream effects in terms of visitation and spend.

So, What’s an

Operator to Do?

It’s important to stress that I don’t 2️⃣ think there’s a one-size-fits-all

solution to hold changes. For large commercial properties on the Las Vegas Strip, where

revenue is 2️⃣ shifting rapidly to non-gaming predominance, where casual visitors to Las

Vegas have small gambling budgets relative to their overall vacation 2️⃣ budgets, where the

overall trip experience has many components beyond their experience on the casino

floor, and where the time 2️⃣ between trips is lengthy, it may make sense to push hold high

and capture the tourist gambling dollar before the 2️⃣ competitor down the street can

capture it.

Next year, when planning their annual Las Vegas trip, the thought of how

quickly 2️⃣ theirR$100 budget was captured by the slots will be dwarfed by their pool,

dining, nightclub and hotel experiences, and by 2️⃣ the “sin” in Sin City.

In regional

markets, by contrast, casinos may have large segments of patrons visiting upwards of 30

2️⃣ or 40 days per year. Gambling is the main concern at these properties, and markets are

quite competitive, with many 2️⃣ having four or more easily accessible casinos, not to

mention the regional or national destination markets—Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Biloxi,

2️⃣ and so on—that are also competing heavily for these guests. Here, hold is a more subtle

concern.

Casinos in these markets 2️⃣ must carefully assess the impact that hold has on

their businesses, but understanding the tradeoff between short-term financial gain

(take 2️⃣ the money quickly) and long-term business stability (Do we alienate our guests

and cause them to reduce or cease visitation?) 2️⃣ is not an easy task. In contrast to the

Las Vegas market, the gambling experience at regional casinos by-and-large is 2️⃣ the

customer experience, so operators should approach the gambling experience with

caution.

Macro Considerations For a Slot Hold Strategy

In assessing the 2️⃣ impact of a

changing slot hold strategy, we must understand the balance between guests who are

time-constrained, those who will 2️⃣ leave the casino before they’ve exhausted their

gambling budget, and guests who are wallet-constrained, those who will exhaust their

monetary 2️⃣ budget before they exhaust their allotment of time. If a guest is

time-constrained, a reduction in slot hold will reduce 2️⃣ the rate at which they lose (on

average), and the casino will capture less of their gaming budget on their

2️⃣ (fixed-length) trip. In order to make this decision profitable, the casino would need

to increase the visitation of those guests 2️⃣ to compensate for the reduced revenue.

If a

guest is wallet-constrained, however, a reduction in slot hold will simply increase the

2️⃣ time that the guest’s budget lasts, providing more time in the casino and more positive

experiences, i.e., more “bang for 2️⃣ their buck.” Of course, if we increase the duration

of the guest’s wallet too much, the guest may become time-constrained, 2️⃣ and we run the

risk of losing the guest’s available budget. It seems natural to argue that a perfect

balance 2️⃣ would be struck if we could have each guest expend their monetary and time

budgets simultaneously.

Quantifying time-constrained versus wallet-constrained guests

2️⃣ is difficult to do scientifically. But as an example of this thinking, in a market like

Biloxi—where many patrons are 2️⃣ lodgers and as such are a relatively captive

audience—guests are likely more wallet-constrained than time-constrained, and a lower

slot hold 2️⃣ environment may increase player satisfaction (and ultimately visitation,

etc.) while effecting a very limited impact on gaming spend.

And besides making 2️⃣ the

casino experience more fun, which we would hope leads to increased visitation, the

limited revenue loss from the gaming 2️⃣ floor on that visit may be recuperated by retail

and dining outlets, albeit at a different margin.

My own experience in 2️⃣ the Louisiana

and Mississippi markets suggests that Biloxi casinos tend to provide

richer-than-typical free-play offers. Increased free play and reduced 2️⃣ slot hold have a

similar effect, increasing time on device, which is low cost to the casino so long as

2️⃣ the patrons are wallet-constrained and not time-constrained.

Of course, many of these

arguments can be applied to Las Vegas as well, 2️⃣ but Las Vegas visitors are more

time-constrained than one might imagine. The allure of other amenities, or even other

casino 2️⃣ properties, limits the amount of vacation time allocated to gambling in any one

location. And with the proliferation of regional 2️⃣ gaming, this makes sense. Most

visitors come to Las Vegas for the party, for the pools, for the weather, for 2️⃣ the food.

The gambling is a nice-to-have, as opposed to Biloxi, where the gambling may be a

primary focus of 2️⃣ the visit.

Additional considerations when developing an overall hold

strategy for a property may include:

The floor’s utilization: Higher utilization

suggests a 2️⃣ higher hold strategy, as reduction of time on device can alleviate any

periods of prohibitive utilization, which itself degrades the 2️⃣ guest experience.

Higher

utilization suggests a higher hold strategy, as reduction of time on device can

alleviate any periods of prohibitive 2️⃣ utilization, which itself degrades the guest

experience. The quality and diversity of a property’s amenity set: The more

opportunities a 2️⃣ property has to provide great experiences to a guest suggests a higher

hold strategy, as the slot experience may contribute 2️⃣ less to the overall guest

experience.

The more opportunities a property has to provide great experiences to a

guest suggests a 2️⃣ higher hold strategy, as the slot experience may contribute less to

the overall guest experience. The frequency of visitation of 2️⃣ the patron database:

Higher-frequency properties might consider a lower-hold approach, since there is a high

dependence on return visitation.

Higher-frequency properties 2️⃣ might consider a

lower-hold approach, since there is a high dependence on return visitation. The

competitiveness of the local market: 2️⃣ Properties in highly competitive markets might

consider a lower-hold approach as a way to improve guest experience.

Micro

Considerations For a 2️⃣ Slot Hold Strategy

I mentioned before that moving from one hold to

another isn’t a universal concept. That is because there 2️⃣ are many ways to change a pay

table. As an example, consider the following simple mock game:

In this game, we

2️⃣ wagerR$1, and we either lose ourR$1, or we winR$1,R$2,R$10, orR$10,000. The bonus game

that produces a win ofR$10 is triggered 2️⃣ on average every 40 spins, and theR$10,000

jackpot is triggered on average every 100,000 spins.

Now let’s say our aim is 2️⃣ to

increase the hold to 13 percent. One way to do this is to decrease the frequency of the

bonus 2️⃣ game to 1 in 50:

Could a player “feel” this difference? How quickly? At eight

spins per minute, this represents a 2️⃣ loss of approximately 2.4 bonus games per hour.

This is a question we can answer with science, but keeping this 2️⃣ concept in mind,

consider this alternative version of the simple game that also achieves 13 percent

hold:

In this variation, we’ve 2️⃣ returned the bonus game to a 1-in-40 proposition but

reduced the frequency of the top award to 1-in-220,000. This pay 2️⃣ table should provide

identical game play as the 7.5 percent pay table, to nearly everyone who plays the

game. No 2️⃣ one will be able to detect with any certainty that the top award has become

less frequent, as no one 2️⃣ expects to hit the top award anyway. Given the option, we

would certainly put the “fewer jackpots” version on the 2️⃣ floor before the “fewer bonus

games” version.

In other words, there are ways to raise hold without impacting the

player experience, 2️⃣ and there are ways to raise hold while lowering the occurrence of

relatively frequent events that the player celebrates. To 2️⃣ the extent that we can

accomplish the former, we should do so enthusiastically. With the latter, we should

proceed cautiously.

Only 2️⃣ a careful review of PAR sheets, which detail pay tables and

frequencies of game awards, can give a clear indication 2️⃣ of how hold changes will affect

player experience, and these can be cumbersome (I’ll say, politely) to read and

interpret. 2️⃣ A broad-based hold increase without regard to how hold is increased will

certainly affect player experience.

An ideal hold strategy would 2️⃣ be designed at the

game level. Operators and manufacturers would work together on how to provide the best

player experience 2️⃣ while achieving operator financial goals.

Another consideration

pointed out to me by savvy slot operators is the speed of the processors 2️⃣ in newer

games. They keenly note that players don’t necessarily experience hold as a percentage

of slot handle, but rather 2️⃣ as a loss-per-hour. We are seeing max bets and cost-to-cover

on penny games increase, processor speeds producing more spins per 2️⃣ hour, and holds

rising, resulting in even more substantial increases in loss per hour.

Conclusion

I’ve

worked with several properties on their 2️⃣ slot hold strategy as an operator and as a

consultant. While there is no one overarching method for measuring the 2️⃣ impact of slot

changes, I’ve been fortunate in my roles to work with talented teams of slot operators,

economists, statisticians 2️⃣ and data scientists to develop methodologies to evaluate the

performance of slot hold changes.

We’ve developed benchmarks and metrics to look 2️⃣ at

player behavior, machine performance, and overall property performance, each providing

a different lens into the effects of these changes. 2️⃣ With forward-thinking operations

teams, we’ve run tests as aggressive as altering the hold on more than 30 percent (!)

of 2️⃣ the machines on a casino floor. As expected, higher hold approaches have produced

more revenue on average in the short 2️⃣ term, though at a mildly diminishing rate.

Most of

the studies were run for only six to 12 months, so I 2️⃣ don’t know if in two, three, five

or 10 years we’d conclude that a lower hold strategy would produce the 2️⃣ loyalty and

guest experience effects needed to outweigh the short-term effects of raising hold. Or

whether we’d find in the 2️⃣ end that cranking up the hold produces stronger financial

outcomes across the board.

Casinos continue to navigate the tradeoffs of immediate

2️⃣ gains at the risk of degrading guest experience in many areas—resort fees in hotels,

outlet fees in bars, ATM fees 2️⃣ approachingR$10, and even parking fees. Regardless of the

enterprise’s overall strategy, taking a tactical, property-specific and game-specific

approach can help 2️⃣ achieve the desired short-term financial outcomes while managing the

guest experience impacts and mitigating some of the potential long-term effects 2️⃣ on the

business.

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