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This variance calculator and simulator for poker is handy and easy to use. Just enter

your winrate, standard deviation and 🍐 the number of hands to simulate. You’ll most

certainly get insightful results. Read below how to use this simulator.

Enter Game

🍐 Parameters Winrate in BB / 100 Observed winrate in BB / 100 (optional) Standard

deviation Examples for standard deviations NLH 🍐 full ring: 60-80 BB/100 NLH 6-max:

75-120 BB/100 PLO full ring: 100-140 BB/100 PLO 6-max: 120-160 BB/100 stat can be 🍐 found

in PokerTracker or HEM Number of hands Calculate 20 samples and confidence intervals

Hit "Calculate"! EV, confidence intervals and 🍐 samples in BB, Best / Worst: Best and

worst run out of 1000 trials EV, confidence intervals and samples in 🍐 BB, Best / Worst:

Best and worst run out of 1000 trials Variance in numbers Detailed sample with

downswings Hands: 🍐 1.0 Million hands Winnings in BB on right axis, current downswing in

BB on left axis. Depending on the number 🍐 of hands displayed, the extent and number of

downswings may be underrepresented due to the resolution of the graph. Winnings 🍐 in BB

on right axis, current downswing in BB on left axis. Depending on the number of hands

displayed, the 🍐 extent and number of downswings may be underrepresented due to the

resolution of the graph. Downswings in numbers

How to use 🍐 my Poker Variance

Calculator?

This section will explain how the calculator works and what the numbers and

charts mean.

Enter the data 🍐 Settings Hop over to the Variance Calculator page and enter

your win rate, standard deviation, and the number of hands 🍐 you want to simulate. You

can ignore the field observed win rate, we’ll get to its purpose later. Once you 🍐 have

entered the data, hit Calculate and let the Calculator do its magic.

Twenty samples

Variance Calculator Samples The first thing 🍐 the Variance Calculator does is to run 20

samples over the number of hands, win rate and standard deviation specified. 🍐 It’ll also

calculate the expected winnings over the number of hands. This number will appear as a

rather boring straight 🍐 and black line in the graph. Thirdly the calculator displays the

70% and 95% confidence intervals as light and dark 🍐 green curves. What you need to know

about them is that at any given time your winnings will be within 🍐 these intervals with

a probability of 70% and 95% respectively. They basically show, how much variance you

should expect to 🍐 see.

Variance in numbers

Below the first chart, the Variance

Calculator compiles a neat list of additional information:

EV : win rate entered

🍐 above

: win rate entered above Standard deviation : standard deviation entered above

standard deviation entered above Hands : number of 🍐 hands entered above

: number of

hands entered above Expected winnings : estimated winnings over the simulated amount of

hands

: estimated 🍐 winnings over the simulated amount of hands Standard deviation after

X hands : This number shows how much your actual 🍐 results will differ from the expected

results on average. The first number shows the absolute value and the second translates

🍐 this number into BB/100, showing the impact on your win rate.

: This number shows how

much your actual results will 🍐 differ from the expected results on average. The first

number shows the absolute value and the second translates this number 🍐 into BB/100,

showing the impact on your win rate. 70% confidence interval : Your actual results over

the simulated amount 🍐 of hands will be within this interval 70% of the time. The first

interval shows absolute numbers and the second 🍐 translates those into BB/100, showing

the 70% confidence interval for your win rate.

: Your actual results over the simulated

amount 🍐 of hands will be within this interval 70% of the time. The first interval shows

absolute numbers and the second 🍐 translates those into BB/100, showing the 70%

confidence interval for your win rate. 95% confidence interval : Same as the 🍐 above with

95% certainty. Meaning: 19 out of 20 times your actual winnings will be within this

interval.

: Same as 🍐 the above with 95% certainty. Meaning: 19 out of 20 times your

actual winnings will be within this interval. Probability 🍐 of loss after X hands : the

probability that you will experience negative winnings (meaning: losses) over the

number of 🍐 hands.

: the probability that you will experience negative winnings (meaning:

losses) over the number of hands. Probability of running at 🍐 or above observed win rate

… : If you entered an observed win rate, this number will show you the 🍐 probability that

you will experience a run at or above this win rate over the number of hands.

: If you

🍐 entered an observed win rate, this number will show you the probability that you will

experience a run at or 🍐 above this win rate over the number of hands. Probability of

running below observed win rate … : Same as 🍐 above – the probability that you will

experience a run below the observed win rate over the number of hands.

: 🍐 Same as above

– the probability that you will experience a run below the observed win rate over the

number 🍐 of hands. Minimum bankroll for less than 5% risk of ruin: the bankroll needed to

have a risk of ruin 🍐 of less than 5%

Detailed sample with downswing

Variance Calculator

Downswing Samples

This chart simulates a single run over 100 thousand up to 🍐 10 million

hands with the win rate and standard deviation entered above. You can choose how many

hands to simulate 🍐 by moving the slider.

Apart from showing a single sample, this graph

also shows some insightful information about downswings. The red 🍐 area shows for any

given point, how much the sample is currently away from its previous peak, meaning it

tracks 🍐 downswings. This chart uses two vertical axes. While the sample winnings have

their scale on the right axis, the downswing 🍐 tracker has its scale on the left axis. In

this example, the simulated player ended up with winnings over 25,000 🍐 big blinds after

2.5 million hands but had to deal with a nasty downswing of almost 10,000 big blinds

between 🍐 hand 1.2 million and hand 2 million.

Downswings in numbers

The last section of

the Variance Calculator sheds some more light on 🍐 potential downswings. Therefore 100

million hands are simulated and all downswings over this simulation are tracked. The

first table shows 🍐 the extent of the downswings. It shows how often the simulated player

was stuck in a downswing of at least 🍐 X big blinds. For example (1000+ BB – 31.77%)

means the player was in the middle of a downswing of 🍐 at least 1,000 big blinds 31.77

percent of the time.

The second table shows how long downswings last on average. For

🍐 example (50000+ Hands – 15.81%) means the simulated player was in a downswing over at

least 50,000 hands 15.81 percent 🍐 of the time. For the purpose of these calculations, a

downswing is defined as any period where the current total 🍐 winnings are below the

maximum previous total winnings. Meaning, that by this definition a downswing is not

over until the 🍐 player has fully recovered his losses.

In general, these simulations

underestimate the extent of downswings, but the numbers should still give 🍐 you a decent

idea of the vastness of downswings you should expect.

Should you have any questions,

encounter any errors or 🍐 have ideas for improvements, please let me know.

» Tournament

Variance Calculator

» Examples and Impacts of Variance in Cash Games

» ICM 🍐 Calculator

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